Why Was Black Monday Not Very Bloody?

When the NFL regular season wrapped up a week ago on Sunday night with the Steelers beating the Bengals, hope immediately sprang eternal for fans of every team in the league.  Yes, only 12 teams made the playoffs and fans of those teams remain hopeful for a Super Bowl title this year.  For fans of the remaining 20 teams, their hope lies with their teams' rebirth in 2015, with new players (via free agency or the draft) and possibly a new coach, but how many new head coaches will there be?

In numerous cases throughout the years, teams with low win totals, sent (at least) their head coach packing the day after the season ended, on what has become known as Black Monday.  For some reason, this year looks like the exception to the rule about teams firing their head coach following a low win total season.  Six teams in the NFL this year won four games or fewer and four teams are currently looking for new head coaches, but before you say that this makes sense, let me add that of those six teams, only ONE parted with their head coach.  The four teams that are looking for a new head coach won four (Jets), five (Bears), six (Falcons) and eight games (49ers....who didn't fire Jim Harbaugh but had a mutual  parting).  Neither of the teams who won only twice this season (Buccaneers and Titans) fired their head coaches, while the teams with three wins (Jaguars and Raiders) are also yet to make a coaching change.  (The Raiders did fire their head coach four games into the season, but Tony Sparano, and his 3-9 record as the interim coach, to date has not been relieved of his duties.)

So what gives?  I believe that Owners and General Managers don't want to admit that they were wrong about their coaching hires.  Both teams who won only twice this season (Buccaneers and Titans) were in year one with new coaches, Lovie Smith and Ken Whisenhunt respectively; while the Jaguars and their three wins were in year two of coach Gus Bradley's tenure.  From 2013 to 2014, the Buccaneers went from four to two wins and the Titans went from seven to two wins.  Steps backward for both franchises.  Before you say that coaches don't make immediate impacts when they join a team, I present to you Chip Kelly who had never coached in the NFL (Eagles went from four wins to 10, plus a division title) and Andy Reid (Chiefs went from two wins to 11, plus a playoff appearance).  Yes, these two may be the exception to the rule, but this shows that a coach's impact may indeed be immediate.  (Additionally, the Jaguars had four wins in the season prior to Bradley's arrival and have won four and three games in his two years on the job.)

While Tampa Bay (and their defensive minded coach) lost several close games this season (eight games by six points or fewer), they were outscored by 133 points (42 of which admittedly came in one blowout loss, but removing that game they still would have ranked 26th in the league in point differential at -91 (vice 28th when including that one game, so not much of an improvement).  Additionally, they finished the season on a six game losing streak.  In Tennessee, the Titans were outscored by an astounding 184 points (only the Raiders were worse (199)) and finished their campaign on a 10 game losing streak (by an average of 13.5 points in each of those games).  One final stat, the Buccaneers were 7th worst in the league at allowing their opponents to turn yards into points (a stat I created called Defensive Efficiency (DEFF) which is yards allowed divided by points allowed), while the Titans were the 4th worst in the league in DEFF and the Jaguars were 8th worst.

The Raiders were the fourth team to win three or fewer games this season, but they are a team (and organization), requiring a significant amount of study and countless more pages of writing.

Does the potential exist that too much change will set a franchise back?  Possibly, but at this point, what do teams that are perennially worse than 8-8 have to lose by making a coaching change? Bottom line, all four teams that won only two or three games this past season need to admit their mistakes and move in a new direction.  The sooner the better for the fans of those franchises.