Do You Believe?

As Christmas comes our way, this question is apt for this time of year.  In the state of Colorado, this has taken on a new meaning as the Denver Broncos have turned a moribund 1-4 start to their season into an 8-5 record and a one game lead in the AFC West with three games to play.  The fact that the Broncos have guaranteed themselves of at least a .500 record is nothing short of a miracle…but how have they done it?

Football is a team game with countless moving parts.  When a team wins or loses multiple games in a row, the QB receives too much credit or blame, so we’ll hold the analysis of a certain left handed QB until later.

The Defense – During the Broncos’ six game winning streak, the defense has given up an average of 17 points.  Removing the Vikings’ 32 points, that average drops to a mere 14.  (The average score of NFL games in the modern NFL era (i.e. post merger) is 17-14.  I like a team’s victory chances if the defense is only giving up two TDs a week.  The Broncos have also only given up an average of 345 yards/game during this streak.  They have bent but not broken.

Turnover Margin – During the six game winning streak, the Broncos offense has turned the ball over 5 times, while the D has forced 9 turnovers, a +4 turnover margin.  This margin is not large, but the offense has done a very good job of taking care of the football and the defense has been extremely opportunistic.  Two games ago in Minnesota, CB Andre’ Goodman had been burned mercilessly by QB Christian Ponder, only to intercept Ponder near the end of regulation to set up the winning field goal for the Broncos.  Just last Sunday in overtime after Bears’ RB Marion Barber had burst through the line for a first down and easily into K Robbie Gould’s field goal range, the Denver D stripped Barber and recovered the fumble.  Barber had not fumbled as a Bear prior to that play.

Kicking Game – In just the last three weeks, K Matt Prater has hit two game winning kicks in overtime (Bears and Chargers) and another at the final whistle (Vikings), with an additional 59 yard field goal to tie the Bears with only a couple seconds remaining in regulation.  Additionally, during Tebow’s first start eight week ago, Prater booted a 51 yard field goal to win that game in overtime.  P Brandon Colquitt has also been excellent.  Against the Bears his high hanging punts forced one of the greatest kick returners of all time, KR Devin Hester, to fair catch almost every kick.  When these two teams met four years ago, Hester returned two kicks for touchdowns as the Bears beat the Broncos in overtime.

Tim Tebow – All of the spread offense goes through the QB so this section will fall under his name.  The so called experts say that Tebow and the Broncos can’t keep winning like they have been…to this I say, why not?  The Bears bottled up Tebow for almost four quarters…but that “almost” left enough time for Tebow Time…what Tebow actually calls Bronco Time.  To go back to the title of this post, Tebow has everyone believing that they are never out of a game.  In years past when the Broncos have been ineffective on offense, even if their defense has been playing well, I could count on the game being lost…but not now.  Tebow comes alive when the game is on the line.  I don’t know how…and yes, I too wish he’d turn it on a little earlier, but Bronco players and fans are learning what kind of leader Tebow is.  Defensive players watch when he is on the field and are as enthralled as we are.  In fact after Tebow scored the go ahead touchdown in the closing seconds of the Thursday night tilt versus the Jets, it was two defensive players (CB Champ Bailey and S Brian Dawkins) who were the first to celebrate with him coming off the field….no coaches or backup QBs…just the leaders of the defense.

After completing only three passes in the first three quarters against the Bears (actually three in the first and zero in the second and third…including some horrendous drops), Tebow completed 18 of 24 in the fourth quarter and overtime.  It is Mile High Magic once again.

I for one believe in Tim Tebow.  He has that IT factor and until a team stops him through the final whistle of a game, I’m going to believe that the Denver Tim Tebows are going to pull out another victory from the jaws of defeat.

Finally Bronco fans have something to thank Josh McDaniels for…nah…not sure anyone will go that far.

Time For a Repost?

I'm working on a new article about Denver and their new favorite son, but in the meantime, I thought this was worth a repost.

Why should the Broncos keep Tim Tebow?

In a word, because Tim Tebow has ‘IT’.

The 2010 draft day maneuvers of the Denver Broncos are still questioned.  They traded to get back into the first round in order to acquire the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback from the University of Florida, when very few people thought he was even worthy of a second round pick….let alone a first.  No one can question either the number of wins or stats he amassed in college, but nobody knew if his skills (both playing ability and leadership) would translate to the NFL game.

Many years ago, NBC did a five minute special on athletes who have ‘IT’.  Mohammed Ali had ‘IT’ and the special said that, in tennis, Andre Agassi did too.  Other athletes were also named, but the bottom line was that athletes who had ‘IT’, had the ability to touch every person in the arena in which they were competing.  It didn’t matter if the spectator was in the front row or in the highest nosebleed seat, athletes with ‘IT’ could draw them to the action like few others.

For several reasons Tim Tebow is a polarizing figure, whether it be his suitability as an NFL QB or his religious views.  It doesn’t matter what side people fall on these issues, it’s hard to stop watching when he’s on the field.  He has the ability with the Denver Broncos and he definitely had the ability to draw even non-casual fans in when he played at the University of Florida.   Tim Tebow has ‘IT’. 

In the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft, the Broncos took two character players, Tebow and Demaryius Thomas from Georgia Tech.  You may question why Thomas is considered a ‘character pick’, but when the Broncos selected him, Dez Bryant was still available, and the Broncos clearly were avoiding the character issues that Bryant carried with him from college.  Bryant was ruled ineligible for the 2009 Oklahoma State season due to not properly reporting his interactions with Deion Sanders.

By trading Tim Tebow, as Peter King reported as a possibility on NBC, the Broncos will lose their one player with ‘IT’.  Having struggled through watching the 2010 Denver Broncos’ season, the last three games looked different than the first 13.  Yes, they finished 1-2 in those games, but Tebow’s presence as a starter energized that team.  His ‘IT’ factor, affected not only the fans, but his teammates as well.

Trading Tebow will negatively affect a Broncos’ fan base that has been more disenfranchised with the organization this season than in the last 20+ years.  Tebow was a bright spot in Denver amid the muck that Josh McDaniels left in his wake.  Why not keep the guy who positively affects the team and fans, is a good role model and who also sells a lot of jerseys?  (Unfortunately the NFL is also a big business.)

Obtaining numerous draft picks would help the Broncos, but not if they have to give up the one guy in the organization with ‘IT’.

Should the Cardinals Have Broken the Bank to Keep Albert Pujols?

To me, the simple answer is no.  While the Cardinals could have spun it to their fan base that part of the gigantic contract would have been for services rendered, I think the Cards did the right thing.

While Pujols finished the year playing significantly better than how he started it, for the third year in a row his batting average (.327-.312-.299), home runs (47-42-37) and RBIs (135-118-99) declined.  Ten years at an average of $25.4M/year is too much for one player, no matter how old he is or how much he has accomplished.  Even if Pujols has 4-5 more top level season, the Cardinals were wise to not break the bank to keep him.  They come out of this looking OK because they offered him huge money and he still left.

So how is not signing Pujols a good thing for St. Louis?  Losing Albert hurts, no doubt about it, but they won the World Series basically without him.  Yes, he clubbed three home runs in one game and doubled to start one of the Game 6 rallies, but other than those, plus being walked, what other memorable thing did he do?  His stat line for the series was 6 for 25…a .240 average with the aforementioned three home runs and five walks.  (In his defense, he did hit .350 in the Divisional Series versus the Phillies and .478 in the National League Championship Series against the Brewers.)

A year ago the Cardinals exercised a final one year, $16M option on Pujols’ contract.  Right now, $16M will be coming off their books, and if they had signed him for approximately $25M/yr, like the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim did, that would have removed an additional $9M from their coffers.

St. Louis is a baseball town, with fans that will continue to attend games regardless of who is playing first base for the Cardinals.  With their current pitching, hitting and division, the Cardinals are still poised to make numerous playoff runs.  Who knows?  Maybe they’ll sign Prince Fielder.

Could Miami Really Be The Next Center Of The Baseball Universe?

My apologies to all of my loyal followers for the horrible display of consistent writing.  Life got in the way...not my wife though, she's encouraged me to write.  On to the topic at hand...

The Florida Marlins have rebranded themselves as the Miami Marlins and are set to move into their brand new retractable roof stadium in Little Havana.  First a little background...For years the Marlins have cried poverty while at the same time have been beneficiaries of MLB's revenue sharing program.  Exact dollar figures of each team are supposed to be confidential but a year ago, financial statements of some teams were leaked, including those of the Marlins.  (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/24/sports/baseball/24pirates.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Baseball%20Chases%20Leak%20Of%20Financial%20Documents%20&st=cse)  They showed that in 2008 and 2009 the Marlins received almost $92M in shared revenue, while producing a net income of $33M and having team salaries of just over $58.6M during the same period ($21.8M in 2008 and $36.8M in 2009, the lowest totals in baseball those two years).  The idea behind the revenue sharing program was that teams who received revenue sharing dollars would take that money and invest it back into their organization in order to improve their team on the field...which would eventually lead to more wins and then more fans in the stands and thus more income generated by the team.

Now to today...After having an average salary of $36.35M over the last six season and ranking dead last in team salary in three of those six, apparently the Marlins are ready to spend some of that hard earned revenue sharing money.

Word on the street is that the Miami Marlins have already made substantial contract offers to several big name free agents.  The ownership has not changed in Miami, but with their new stadium opening, apparently their modus operandi has.

The biggest fish (actually no pun intended) on the free agent market this year is 1B Albert Pujols, formerly of the Cardinals.  Miami has already brought him in for a visit and reportedly offered him a contract work $225M over nine years, a $25M/year average.  (Some reports dispute the total dollars, but not the length of the contract.)  This offer is higher in years, total dollars and average dollars than what the Cardinals offered last spring before contract talks were cut off once spring training started.

Another marquee free agent is Mets SS Jose Reyes who the Marlins have wined and dined and made an initial contract off of $90M over six years.  Sources have said thatat Reyes wants to be a $100M man, but with the Marlins' new found spending ways, bumping the offer to $100M/6 isn't out of the question.

The Marlins also hosted and maded an undisclosed offer to White Sox P Mark Buehrle and made and offer to RP Ryan Madsen.

Many (myself included) thought Pujols would be crazy to leave the Cardnials just for more money, because the Cardinals give him a chance to win virtually every year.  Also, the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies (all big spenders) have first basemen locked up for numerous years each.  The Marlins do have a corps of good young talent (Josh Johnson, Hanley Ramirex, Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton and Babby Sanchez) and definitely have the potential to win games, so Pujols would have a chance to win there.  If Pujols does indeed sign in Miami, other players are sure to follow and what has been one of the worst drawing franchises will have more than plenty of fans in the stands, will generate real income on their own and may indeed become the new center of the baseball universe.

Now, do I think all this will happen?  No.  I do believe Reyes is headed to South Beach, but the Marlins moves show that they are interested in being more than just a drain on the revenue sharing system.

Really, Only A $10K Fine?

The NFL has handed out its first fine of the regular season, and it wasn’t for a vicious helmet to helmet hit.  Charles Woodson, cornerback for the Green Bay Packers has been fined $10,000 by the league for “throwing a punch” at Saints’ tight end David Thomas during last Thursday’s opening game.

Let’s get a few things straight here.  Yes, Woodson “threw a punch”…but he also landed it!  He said that he felt Thomas was “holding me a little longer than I wanted”…I’m sorry, he landed a punch!  The only thing worse than the miniscule fine (Woodson makes millions of dollars a year) is that it happened right in front of a referee.  Had the punch been hidden (middle of a pile) I can understand the small punishment, but the referee in question immediately threw his flag and assessed a 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.  In all my years of watching football (high school, college and pro), I have never seen a player throw a punch and be allowed to stay in the game…especially one that was right in front of the official and that was penalized.  This doesn’t make any sense to me.

Many (especially Green Bay fans and others who were betting jellybeans on the game) would argue that Drew Brees threw for 419 yards and three TDs with Woodson in the game, but the fact of the matter is, the removal of Woodson from the game in the third quarter would have degraded the Packers’ defense.  Instead of having their number one and two cornerbacks on the field for every play, they would have had numbers two and three playing, with other lower players on the depth chart filling in as the nickel back on passing downs….which was just about every play.  A quarterback doesn’t pass for 419 yards when his team is running the ball a lot.

I’m not saying that the Saints would have definitely won that game, but their chances would have been significantly higher had Woodson been correctly tossed.

So What Did We Learn?

Week one of the NFL season is in the books, so what did we learn? For starters, we now know that half the league won't go undefeated this season....beyond that, it's really all still speculation. Today's immediate highlight culture thinks every event is the greatest ever. Let's pause and look at what things really mean.
Here are a few things I learned.
- The Steelers will be OK. Did they get punched in the mouth and bullied by the Ravens? Absolutely, and yes they turned the ball over seven times but after the Ravens got a lead they were able to focus on rushing the passer and turnovers and sacks followed. The Ravens held serve on their home turf. The Steelers have issues to address but their proud, storied organization will rebound. They lost one game… on the road…in a hostile environment.
- Does Tony Romo deserve all of the blame for the Cowboys' late collapse against the Jets? No way. Did he turn the ball over twice in the final 9 minutes? Yes, but the fumble occurred when Romo tried to scramble for a touchdown, so I don't totally fault him for trying to personally extend the Boys' lead. Let’s back up a few plays, however, to Romo's nice long completion to TE Jason Witten. Witten got chased down and forced out of bounds by a smaller DB, Jim Leohnard. Personally I think Witten should have driven his way to paydirt. Romo's fumble would have thus never had the chance to happened. Was Romo on the field when the punt was blocked and returned for a score? No. He didn't get a first down but he had nothing to do with the special teams' gaffe. The interception to Derrell Revis was bad though. His intended target was Dez Bryant who was hurt, so Romo shouldn't have even been looking that way. If Revis was covering a hurt guy, that meant Miles Austin or Witten didn't have Revis covering them. Should have looked a different direction.
- Cam Newton had an incredible debut with 422 yards passing, while accounting for three TDs. What we don't know is how good is the Cardinals' defense? Were they expecting him to run and he stayed put in the pocket and thus let plays develop? Was Newton facing eight men in the box? Time will tell.
- Packers-Saints...lots of points. Didn't learn much, just validated what we thought we knew.
- Biggest benefactor of Stanford's Andrew Luck not entering the 2011 NFL Draft...Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Buffalo Bills. Stay with me...Luck would have gone number one to the Panthers with Von Miller still going number two to the Broncos. At number three, Buffalo would have taken Can Newton instead of DT Marcel Darius. Fitzpatrick's time with New York's actual only team would have been virtually over. So what does Harvard's Fitzpatrick do? 4 TDs on the road at KC. Their win probably had something to do with their classic uniforms too.
- The Dolphins are thankful they don't have to play Tom Brady every week. Tom Terrific tore them apart. One interception and it came on a weird deflection back to a defensive lineman.
- Sorry Donovan McNabb, that was awful. Yes you've got Adrian Peterson but you've got to pass for more than 39 yards. Washington is looking smarter to have parted company with McNabb, even though they'd given up a lot to acquire him a year ago.
- The Eagles won comfortably (over the Rams) with their star studded team but I think it will take at least a month for the team to gel. The line needs to protect Vick better or the Eagles' massive investment is in serious trouble.
- Peyton Manning just showed the world that he's indeed the Colts' MVP. Wow that team was terrible without him. ESPN created a new scoring metric for QBs called Total Quarterback Rating which is on a scale of 0 to 100. Kerry Collins had a rating of 2.3. Yowzah.
- The Bears beat down the Falcons but Atlanta will be fine.

So here are my predictions for the 2011 NFL season. These did not change after the week one games.
AFC East - Patriots. Until someone dethrones them, I will continue to pick Brady and Bill Belichick.
AFC North - Ravens. Flacco and Rice are a great tandem. The defense for years has gotten all the credit in Baltimore (justifiably so) but I think the offense under coordinator Cam Cameron could be great.
AFC South - Texans. Without Petting Manning playing for 2-3 months, this should be their year. They're defense under Wade Phillips will be improved and their offense will be excellent. They did crush the Colts without last year's leading rusher in the NFL, Arian Foster.
AFC West - Chargers. Phillip Rivers put up ridiculous passing numbers last year without any big name receivers (Vincent Jackson held out for half the season) and this year Rivers’ starting the season with Jackson, as well as the others who benefited from Jackson's previous absence. They're special teams can't be as bad this year as last...but they scared everyone when they gave up a touchdown on the opening kickoff of the season….and lost their exceptional kicker to a torn ACL.
Wild Card 1 - Steelers. They'll rebound. Too proud of an organization not to do so. They do need to protect Ben Roethlisberger better though.
Wild Card 2 – Jets…I don't want to make this pick….so you know what, I’m not going to because nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.  I don’t know why, but I can’t stand the Jets.  They may finally make good on Rex Ryan’s Super Bowl promise, but I think a team that hasn’t reached a Super Bowl since Joe Namath was quarterback needs to only let their play on the field do the talking.

NFC East - Eagles. Won't run the table but they'll be fun to watch.
NFC North - Packers. Had 15 players on IR last year...and still won the Super Bowl. They even lost two key players during the title game (Driver and Woodson).
NFC South - Saints. Defense won't go against the Packers every week thankfully.
NFC West - Cardinals. No standout teams so this one is rough. (Remember, the Seahawks won this division with a losing record last season...and then they then beat the heavily favored Saints in the playoffs.) The Cardinals acquired QB Kevin Kolb in the offseason and hopefully he'll gel with WR Larry Fitzgerald quickly.
Wild Card 1 - Falcons. They traded several future draft picks in order to trade up and get WR Julio Jones. He doesn't have to be the number one guy (Roddy White is that guy) so he'll be fine...as will the Falcons.
Wild Card 2 - Lions. Yup, they're back. It's been a long time coming. QB Matthew Stafford can be great if he stays healthy and WR Calvin Johnson is ridiculously good. Double teams don't stop him. The defense, with their outstanding defensive linemen, is going to be a force this year.
 

AFC Title Game - Patriots over Chargers (at San Diego)
NFC Title Game - Packers over Saints (at Green Bay…replay of the opening game)
Super Bowl - Packers over Patriots. Second team to 45 loses.