What if Lance really did cheat?

Cycling is at best a fringe sport in the United States.  Only two times during any given year will cycling make the front page of ESPN or SI.com, 1) During the Tour de France in June and July and 2) when one of the sport's elite tests positive for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs).

The second category is iffy (at best) due to the prevailing perception that for years cyclists have use drugs to enhance their performance, which leads us to a recent article in Sports Illustrated.

An excerpt of the print article appeared online late last week, but how many page views would it have received if its subject line, instead of saying the prominent rider's name instead said, "Years long investigation pegs cycling champ as cheater"?  The vast majority of readers wouldn't have clicked to see who the cyclist in question was; instead, because the cyclist in question is Lance Armstrong, we have a noteworthy news story on our hands.

Since I'm paid to ask and answer the tough questions...actually, I'm not paid to do either...let's play another round of the game that's sweeping the nation...What If?  What if Lance Armstrong actually did use performance enhancing drugs?  Would the world as we know it end?  No.  Would cycling take a hit?  This is hard to say because competitive cycling probably ranks below bowling in the TV ratings, but Armstrong is much more than just a cyclist.  Since his remarkable recovery from cancer and seven consecutive Tour de France titles, he has raised millions of dollars for cancer research through his Livestrong Foundation.  Will the major contributors (and minor ones too for that matter) cease contributing to his foundation?

I've got to believe that the backlash against Armstrong (and his foundation) will be immediate and permanent if it is proven that he used PEDs.  He has maintained for as long as anyone paid attention to him, that he is clean, stating numerous times that he was the most tested athlete in the world.  While I don't doubt that Armstrong has been tested countless times, we need to remember that numerous athletes who have admitted to using PEDs have never actually tested positive for their use.  To further this point, the banned substances "the cream and the clear" were unknown to the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) until samples were provided to them anonymously in 2003.  (These two particular drugs had been around for years, with Marion Jones, among others, using them before the 2000 Sydney Olympics.)  Unfortunately, so-called designer drugs (specifically steroids) have been steps ahead of drug tests...as people have stated, was Lance using substances that just hadn't been banned?

Another interested party in this ordeal is Nike.  First Tiger Woods' image imploded after his indiscretions came to light and now one of their other marquee athletes is possibly set to fall.  The difference I see here is that Woods has the ability to recover from his transgressions because he didn't break the law.  He showed that he was human and had flaws, but what he did in no way improved his golf game.  If it's proven that Armstrong used PEDs, he will be forever vilified for being a cheater.  Tiger Woods lost several sponsors in the wake of his infidelities coming to light, but he may earn more back if he can regain his old form.  Armstrong is past his prime in his sport (hard not to be after winning The Tour seven times), and won't have the time to ride at the front of the pack and show that he can compete and win cleanly.  His sponsors will most likely never return.

America has invested heavily in Lance Armstrong, and hopefully for his sake, the latest allegations will too fall by the wayside, because he'll never bounce back from this.

What should the focus of the Jay Cutler saga be?

Three days ago, during the NFC Championship game, Jay Cutler had the (as some have said) audacity to pull up lame with an injured knee.  Starting with tweets during the game, and continuing through today (and for who knows how long), Cutler has been raked over the coals for not playing in virtually the entire second half of the title game, all the while looking completely disinterested in the game.

I am not questioning Cutler's toughness.  There is no possible way anyone can know what his pain tolerance is, least of all people sitting at home watching him play on national TV.  He's a professional athlete and in one game versus the Giants this year was sacked nine times.  Wasn't everyone lauding his toughness then?  His offensive line had arguably the worst performance of any offensive line in the 2010 season, yet Cutler peeled himself off the new Giants Stadium turf time after time.  In my opinion, he's earned the right to say he was injured, and not to play in the second half when he couldn't perform at a high enough level to help his team.

Let's get one thing straight though...Cutler was having a terrible game versus the Packers.  In his one half plus one series of work, he was 6-14-80 with no touchdowns, one interception and a QB rating of 31.8.  He was ineffective versus Dom Capers' schemes, missing a wide open Devin Hester twice, both of which would have severely changed the course of the game.  Even the debacle that was second string QB Todd Collins had a higher rating (39.6) and he was 0-4 for zero yards!  Did Cutler give up because he was ineffective?  I highly doubt this because an MRI on Monday did show a Grade 2 strain of his MCL.  A Grade 1 strain is mild, so this does show that he was in at least a fair amount of pain.

I believe the biggest criticism of Cutler was his demeanor on the sidelines.  People obviously haven't been paying much attention to Cutler through the years because he has always looked like he's moping.  The look on his face when he signed a huge extension with the Bears before the 2010 season was exactly the same as when he was sitting next to third string QB (and nearly the newest Chicago legend) Caleb Hanie on the bench.  Hanie was sitting looking at photos of the previous series and trying to determine which players were Packers and which were Bears, with Cutler staring off at the jumbotron.  Hanie has since come out and said that Cutler did provide advice, but somehow this completely escaped every single camera that Fox had at the game.

Cutler is just not a leader...he never has been, and at this point probably never will.  He's not dynamic enough.  On ESPN Radio with Mike and Mike, Herm Edwards said that Cutler is not a leader because he doesn't make the players around him better.  He went on to say that Cutler is highly talented, but, again, he doesn't develop his teammates.  This is the best description I've heard of Cutler.  In an earlier post, I wrote about how Tim Tebow rallied not only the offense around him, but the entire team...this is just not Cutler.

A sports minded friend of mine compared Cutler to the legendary Jeff George because he has zero brain with a big arm.  Putting together a bunch of tweets and comments, it sounds like people think he's three characters from the Wizard of Oz rolled into one...no brain (Scarecrow), no heart (Tin Man), and no courage (Cowardly Lion).  If only he was afraid of water.

It's not right for anyone to question Jay Cutler's pain threshold, but it's completely valid to question his ability to be a leader.

Would the NFL really choke the Golden Goose?

As the Conference Title games and Super Bowl approach a much bigger event looms on the NFL horizon. Of course the Pro Bowl is an event too, but the lingering NFL Lockout is the huge elephant that is finely being noticed in the room by the media and general public.

Some have proclaimed this showdown to be millionaires versus billionaires and there is just too much money out there for a deal not to get done, but that's what the real issue is...there's too much money out there! Everybody wants a bigger slice of the pie but neither side appears willing to back down. The Owners think they gave too great a percentage of revenue to the players when the last Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was signed, while the Players maintain that the Owners agreed with the last deal, yet are the ones who opted out. The Players feel that they should accept nothing less than they received in the last CBA.

Could it be that the most popular sport in the US not have a season in 2011? The NFL's popularity is at an all time high, but how far would a lockout set that back? Would the Owners and Players be that short sided? It took several years for MLB's popularity to return to pre-strike levels and some believe the NHL's still hasn't returned. Baseball was fortunate to have Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa bashing home runs at a record rate plus the pursuit of Lou Gehrig's consecutive games streak by Cal Ripken. Football doesn't have any such record breaking events on its horizon, so it will be relying on fans coming back to the game who they just let down.

In his Pro Football Hall of Fame induction speech, Howie Long said, "Baseball may be America's pastime, but football is America's passion." The only real loser in this whole ordeal is the fans.

What if two years ago had gone differently in Denver?

In January 2009, the Josh McDaniels era began in Denver.  The hiring by the Broncos was hailed as a great marriage of an up and coming offensive mind to be paired with the still somewhat raw talent Denver had at quarterback, Jay Cutler.

McDaniels was an excellent coaching candidate, straight off the Bill Belichick tree (yes, that tree is looking a little wilted now).  As Offensive Coordinator (and play caller) for New England in 2007, he guided the Patriots to a 16-0 regular season, and in the process, set numerous offensive records, including 50 TD passes by Tom Brady.  After losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl that season, the Patriots in 2008 looked primed to repeat their offensive explosions, but in the first quarter of the first game of the season, Tom Brady was hit in the knee (yes, the hit was questionable), tearing both his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and medial collateral ligament (MCL).  Brady was lost for the season after just 76 yards passing and no TDs.  Brady’s replacement was little known Matt Cassel who hadn’t started a game in over eight years.  Eight years is hard to believe but he was a backup QB in college for four years at USC to Carson Palmer and Matt Lienart, as well as for his first four years in New England to Brady.  McDaniels hardly missed a beat, helping guide the rusty Cassel and the rest of the Patriots to ten wins.

At the same time, Cutler was coming off a Pro Bowl Season in Denver when he threw for 4526 yards and 25 TDs.  At first glance this looked like a match made in Heaven, but a phone call two months into McDaniels’ tenure, would eventually prove to be the beginning of the end for McDaniels.  New England inquired if Denver would be amenable to trading away Jay Cutler and obtaining Matt Cassel (another team and various draft picks and players were rumored to be involved as well).  The logic was that Cassel was familiar with the offense McDaniels was installing in Denver, and thus the key cog in the offensive system would already be firing on all cylinders.

What if Josh McDaniels had simply said, “Thanks for the offer, but no” and then told the press about the offer and his outright refusal of it, instead of making no denials and eventually causing a riff so deep with Cutler that Denver was forced to trade their Pro Bowl (but petulant) QB?

And so begins the What If? game.  Could it be that Denver would have won a weak AFC West this year?  Three key players who departed after the infamous March 2009 phone call would have had a lot to say about this.  Not only was Cutler jettisoned, Brandon Marshall talked his way out of town, Peyton Hillis, who was deemed not to be a McDaniels guy, was traded (with draft picks to even out the deal) for the immortal Brady Quinn (who never saw the field).  Additionally other players were traded (Tony Scheffler) or cut because they didn’t fit into McDaniels plans.  Cutler is now set to start the NFC Title Game for the Chicago Bears this Sunday, Marshall amassed over 1000 yards in only 14 games for the Miami Dolphins, and Hillis was one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season, rushing for 1177 yards and 11 TDs for the Cleveland Browns.

Who doesn’t think those three could have added to McDaniels’ offense?  Yes, this doesn’t change the fact that the defense was beyond terrible this season, but if 2009 had been different with Cutler quarterbacking McDaniels prolific New England style offense, might the following offseason been different and might Elvis Dumerville not have gotten hurt?

This drill is fruitless, but I believe it is safe to say that had McDaniels handled things differently when he was offered Matt Cassel in 2009, he would still be the Head Coach of the Denver Broncos and Denver’s streak of missing the playoffs would be a thing of history.  Instead John Elway and John Fox are now plotting yet another new course for Bronco success.

Are there deeper issues in Denver?

Could it be that the Denver Head Coaching job had become non-desirable?  For the last 51 years, Denver has been a Broncos’ town, and they are not going to fall off their perch any time soon.  What’s puzzling is that three candidates for their Head Coaching job turned down the chance to even interview.  Jim Harbaugh only spoke with the 49ers and Dolphins, Gregg Williams decided to remain in New Orleans and Mike Mularkey didn’t want to spend time away from Atlanta….even though the Falcons opponent for this week’s game wasn’t even decided yet.  Also, at a press conference John Elway call Mularkey “Mark Mularkey”, so that probably didn’t sit well with the Falcons’ Offensive Coordinator.

Were candidates wary of serving under John Elway?  Obviously the shadow Elway casts on Denver is huge (his likeness was allegedly a finalist to go on the Colorado State Quarter), but were speople worried about his personnel evaluation acumen?  Yes, he co-owned the Colorado Crush, winning an Arena Football League title, but he hasn't been officially associated with the NFL since his retirement following the his second Super Bowl Championship.  He was a talented football player, but can he evaluate talent?

How much have the Colorado Rockies cut into the Broncos fanbase?  Josh McDaniels alienated a lot of fans in Denver, but it was still surprising to see that in both November and early January, sports news, both local and around the country (when talking about Denver) was focused on the Rockies.  By locking up Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez (among other players), the Rockies committed more money to players than any team in Major League Baseball, even the Yankees.  By locking up their young superstars, the Rockies are planning on further painting Denver Purple and Black.

How long has it been since the Broncos made the playoffs?  What may be most shocking for people to learn is that the Broncos own the longest playoff draught in Denver.  The Rockies went to the World Series in 2007 and again made the playoffs two years later, while the Nuggets played in the Western Conference Finals in 2009 and have made the playoffs for the last seven seasons.  The rebuilding Colorado Avalanche returned to the postseason last year and the often forgotten Colorado Rapids won the MLS Cup this past season.  Counting soccer as a major sport (it does further bolster the argument), all four other major sports teams have made the postseason (and faired pretty well) since the Broncos last playoff appearance following the 2005 season.

John Elway will bring some good will back to the organization, but he won't be given a leash of unlimited length.  If it is not apparent within the next two seasons that Broncos are headed in the right direction, an even uglier situation could arise in Denver where the prodigal son becomes persona non grata.

John Fox, really?

Today the Denver Broncos picked John Fox to be their new Head Coach.  Only one description comes to mind...safe choice.  Fox was the one candidate who had head coaching experience at the NFL level and the Bronco organization had stated during the coaching search that head coaching experience was not required, but was preferred.

John Fox was an excellent Defensive Coordinator for the New York Giants before serving as Carolina’s Head Coach.  The Bronco Faithful (of whom there are fewer now) are hoping for a return of the Orange Crush Defense of the 1970s and 80s…wins are expected to follow.

A coach does not get to serve as a Head Coach for nine years in the NFL if he’s not doing things right.  John Fox will do fine in Denver, but other issues may need to be explored for the Broncos.

What are the Jets thinking?

A great deal of talk in the media has occurred over the last week regarding the comments made by New York Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan and CB Antonio Cromartie which were aimed at their division rivals and opponents this weekend, the New England Patriots.  More specifically, the target of these jabs has been the Patriots QB, and odds on favorite for NFL MVP, Tom Brady.

I realize that this is what the Jets do.  They follow the lead of their Head Coach, who is probably the most outspoken coach in the league…actually I don't even think it's close.  Since we're now in the NFL playoffs, every game for each team is now the biggest game of the season, so I feel forced to ask, in the week prior to your biggest game of the season, WHY TUG ON SUPERMAN'S CAPE?!!!

Is it possible to get in Brady's head? Yes, anything's possible but is it probable? He's got one of the highest post season winning percentages of any starting QB in NFL history, so the chances aren't good that he can be rattled.

My guess is that the Patriots' coaching staff is devising a few extra special plays for Cromartie, but the fact of the matter is that a lot of balls were set to go his way anyway.  Last week Darrelle Revis held Reggie Wayne to one catch for one yard in the Jets' victory.  The Colts attacked Cromartie and the rest of the secondary, with Pierre Garcon catching five balls for 112 yards and a TD.  Why throw at a "great player" (Brady's words to describe Revis) when a "good player" (Brady's words to describe Cromartie) is on the other side of the field?

Three years ago a Steelers' DB spouted off on the Patriots and Brady attacked him all day during the Pats' victory.  I expect more of the same in Foxboro this weekend.