Do You Believe?

As Christmas comes our way, this question is apt for this time of year.  In the state of Colorado, this has taken on a new meaning as the Denver Broncos have turned a moribund 1-4 start to their season into an 8-5 record and a one game lead in the AFC West with three games to play.  The fact that the Broncos have guaranteed themselves of at least a .500 record is nothing short of a miracle…but how have they done it?

Football is a team game with countless moving parts.  When a team wins or loses multiple games in a row, the QB receives too much credit or blame, so we’ll hold the analysis of a certain left handed QB until later.

The Defense – During the Broncos’ six game winning streak, the defense has given up an average of 17 points.  Removing the Vikings’ 32 points, that average drops to a mere 14.  (The average score of NFL games in the modern NFL era (i.e. post merger) is 17-14.  I like a team’s victory chances if the defense is only giving up two TDs a week.  The Broncos have also only given up an average of 345 yards/game during this streak.  They have bent but not broken.

Turnover Margin – During the six game winning streak, the Broncos offense has turned the ball over 5 times, while the D has forced 9 turnovers, a +4 turnover margin.  This margin is not large, but the offense has done a very good job of taking care of the football and the defense has been extremely opportunistic.  Two games ago in Minnesota, CB Andre’ Goodman had been burned mercilessly by QB Christian Ponder, only to intercept Ponder near the end of regulation to set up the winning field goal for the Broncos.  Just last Sunday in overtime after Bears’ RB Marion Barber had burst through the line for a first down and easily into K Robbie Gould’s field goal range, the Denver D stripped Barber and recovered the fumble.  Barber had not fumbled as a Bear prior to that play.

Kicking Game – In just the last three weeks, K Matt Prater has hit two game winning kicks in overtime (Bears and Chargers) and another at the final whistle (Vikings), with an additional 59 yard field goal to tie the Bears with only a couple seconds remaining in regulation.  Additionally, during Tebow’s first start eight week ago, Prater booted a 51 yard field goal to win that game in overtime.  P Brandon Colquitt has also been excellent.  Against the Bears his high hanging punts forced one of the greatest kick returners of all time, KR Devin Hester, to fair catch almost every kick.  When these two teams met four years ago, Hester returned two kicks for touchdowns as the Bears beat the Broncos in overtime.

Tim Tebow – All of the spread offense goes through the QB so this section will fall under his name.  The so called experts say that Tebow and the Broncos can’t keep winning like they have been…to this I say, why not?  The Bears bottled up Tebow for almost four quarters…but that “almost” left enough time for Tebow Time…what Tebow actually calls Bronco Time.  To go back to the title of this post, Tebow has everyone believing that they are never out of a game.  In years past when the Broncos have been ineffective on offense, even if their defense has been playing well, I could count on the game being lost…but not now.  Tebow comes alive when the game is on the line.  I don’t know how…and yes, I too wish he’d turn it on a little earlier, but Bronco players and fans are learning what kind of leader Tebow is.  Defensive players watch when he is on the field and are as enthralled as we are.  In fact after Tebow scored the go ahead touchdown in the closing seconds of the Thursday night tilt versus the Jets, it was two defensive players (CB Champ Bailey and S Brian Dawkins) who were the first to celebrate with him coming off the field….no coaches or backup QBs…just the leaders of the defense.

After completing only three passes in the first three quarters against the Bears (actually three in the first and zero in the second and third…including some horrendous drops), Tebow completed 18 of 24 in the fourth quarter and overtime.  It is Mile High Magic once again.

I for one believe in Tim Tebow.  He has that IT factor and until a team stops him through the final whistle of a game, I’m going to believe that the Denver Tim Tebows are going to pull out another victory from the jaws of defeat.

Finally Bronco fans have something to thank Josh McDaniels for…nah…not sure anyone will go that far.

Time For a Repost?

I'm working on a new article about Denver and their new favorite son, but in the meantime, I thought this was worth a repost.

Why should the Broncos keep Tim Tebow?

In a word, because Tim Tebow has ‘IT’.

The 2010 draft day maneuvers of the Denver Broncos are still questioned.  They traded to get back into the first round in order to acquire the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback from the University of Florida, when very few people thought he was even worthy of a second round pick….let alone a first.  No one can question either the number of wins or stats he amassed in college, but nobody knew if his skills (both playing ability and leadership) would translate to the NFL game.

Many years ago, NBC did a five minute special on athletes who have ‘IT’.  Mohammed Ali had ‘IT’ and the special said that, in tennis, Andre Agassi did too.  Other athletes were also named, but the bottom line was that athletes who had ‘IT’, had the ability to touch every person in the arena in which they were competing.  It didn’t matter if the spectator was in the front row or in the highest nosebleed seat, athletes with ‘IT’ could draw them to the action like few others.

For several reasons Tim Tebow is a polarizing figure, whether it be his suitability as an NFL QB or his religious views.  It doesn’t matter what side people fall on these issues, it’s hard to stop watching when he’s on the field.  He has the ability with the Denver Broncos and he definitely had the ability to draw even non-casual fans in when he played at the University of Florida.   Tim Tebow has ‘IT’. 

In the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft, the Broncos took two character players, Tebow and Demaryius Thomas from Georgia Tech.  You may question why Thomas is considered a ‘character pick’, but when the Broncos selected him, Dez Bryant was still available, and the Broncos clearly were avoiding the character issues that Bryant carried with him from college.  Bryant was ruled ineligible for the 2009 Oklahoma State season due to not properly reporting his interactions with Deion Sanders.

By trading Tim Tebow, as Peter King reported as a possibility on NBC, the Broncos will lose their one player with ‘IT’.  Having struggled through watching the 2010 Denver Broncos’ season, the last three games looked different than the first 13.  Yes, they finished 1-2 in those games, but Tebow’s presence as a starter energized that team.  His ‘IT’ factor, affected not only the fans, but his teammates as well.

Trading Tebow will negatively affect a Broncos’ fan base that has been more disenfranchised with the organization this season than in the last 20+ years.  Tebow was a bright spot in Denver amid the muck that Josh McDaniels left in his wake.  Why not keep the guy who positively affects the team and fans, is a good role model and who also sells a lot of jerseys?  (Unfortunately the NFL is also a big business.)

Obtaining numerous draft picks would help the Broncos, but not if they have to give up the one guy in the organization with ‘IT’.

Should the Cardinals Have Broken the Bank to Keep Albert Pujols?

To me, the simple answer is no.  While the Cardinals could have spun it to their fan base that part of the gigantic contract would have been for services rendered, I think the Cards did the right thing.

While Pujols finished the year playing significantly better than how he started it, for the third year in a row his batting average (.327-.312-.299), home runs (47-42-37) and RBIs (135-118-99) declined.  Ten years at an average of $25.4M/year is too much for one player, no matter how old he is or how much he has accomplished.  Even if Pujols has 4-5 more top level season, the Cardinals were wise to not break the bank to keep him.  They come out of this looking OK because they offered him huge money and he still left.

So how is not signing Pujols a good thing for St. Louis?  Losing Albert hurts, no doubt about it, but they won the World Series basically without him.  Yes, he clubbed three home runs in one game and doubled to start one of the Game 6 rallies, but other than those, plus being walked, what other memorable thing did he do?  His stat line for the series was 6 for 25…a .240 average with the aforementioned three home runs and five walks.  (In his defense, he did hit .350 in the Divisional Series versus the Phillies and .478 in the National League Championship Series against the Brewers.)

A year ago the Cardinals exercised a final one year, $16M option on Pujols’ contract.  Right now, $16M will be coming off their books, and if they had signed him for approximately $25M/yr, like the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim did, that would have removed an additional $9M from their coffers.

St. Louis is a baseball town, with fans that will continue to attend games regardless of who is playing first base for the Cardinals.  With their current pitching, hitting and division, the Cardinals are still poised to make numerous playoff runs.  Who knows?  Maybe they’ll sign Prince Fielder.