What Will Chip Kelly Do?

I'll start this post with a disclosure....my wife graduated from a PAC-12 school and although this may be considered blasphemous in her family, I am a diehard fan of Chip Kelly at Oregon.  His explosive teams (in this case 'explosive' may actually be an understatement) are fun to watch and he is a student of sports' analytics, specifically in game situations as to when to attempt fourth down conversions when the traditional coaching mindset says to punt or try a field goal.  He calls plays that give his teams the best chance to win games rather than to "play it safe" and avoid losing.  He's figured out the difference and this has been refreshing to see at the college level and of which, more is needed in the NFL.

A year ago, Kelly was offered the head coaching position with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but turned it down (thus leading the Bucs to make a somewhat surprise hire in Greg Schiano from Rutgers).  Kelly's Ducks went on to go 11-1 this season with a Freshman QB and a new starting RB, losing only to what my neighbor claimed (and I agree) was "a perfect game" played by Stanford.  Did you know that the Ducks averaged 50.8 points per game and 550.1 yards per contest?  Would he be able to put numbers like this up at the pro level?  To answer "highly unlikely" is probably giving it too much of a chance, but the intrigue is still there.  Members of the New England Patriots have publicly said that the up-tempo offense they've run this season is modeled after Kelly's, and showing it's crossover appeal, before their title winning season a year ago, Miami Heat Head Coach Eric Spoelstra, spent time studying the Ducks' offense and applying its principles to the NBA game.  Seemed to work out pretty well for the Heat, and the Patriots have already locked up the AFC East title and a playoff spot this season.

Compared to other teams, Kelly's offense has exploited defensive weaknesses better than almost everyone, finishing the season ranked 2nd nationally in points/game (again 50.8!!!) and 4th in yards/game.  In a stat I created seven years ago (albeit for the NFL, but it applies to all levels of football), Oregon ranks 2nd (out of 124 teams) in what I have coined "Offensive Efficiency" (OEFF).   (Basically, OEFF is how many yards a team has to go to score one point; the lower the number for an offense the better because everyone wants their team to have their offensive drives turn into points, preferably touchdowns.  Bottom line, Offensive Efficiency is how good a team is in turning yards into points.)  In the year preceding Kelly’s arrival (2006), Oregon ranked 54^th in OEFF, but as the Duck’s Offensive Coordinator, their OEFF immediately jumped to 21st in the nation in 2007 and again up to 12th in 2008.  Since Kelly became the Head Coach (but still running the offense) in 2009, his teams have ranked 5^th, 4^th, 8^th and 2^nd in OEFF.  In contrast, over the same years, Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide teams ranked 23rd, 26th, 18th and 7th.  Yes, Alabama is known for its defense and not offense but it shows the disparity among elite teams for making the most of their offensive drives.  OEFF penalizes teams who accumulate large yardage stats but end up with field goals or turnovers at the end of their drives.  (Unfortunately, defensive stats are not found ANYWHERE except in individual game box scores and since I'm not yet paid to do this for a living, copying the stats from 60 games every weekend and crunching the numbers takes a little too much time.  It's odd that for college football, offensive numbers are readily available but defensive yards and points allowed are not.  College football stats are unlike the NFL's which has all of its major stats available every week on several websites.  That said, if anyone is hiring to do stats research, I'm in.)

As stated, I don't believe Kelly's offense, as it's currently constructed (QB taking too many hits), would work against bigger, stronger, faster NFL defenses, but the way that Kelly exploits weaknesses of other teams, I believe will definitely translate to the pro game.   Unfortunately for Kelly, Steve Spurrier's highly effective Fun ‘n’ Gun offense at the University of Florida didn't translate to success at the pro level (most say due to the bigger, stronger, faster NFL defenses but having non-NFL caliber QBs was a bigger issue in my opinion) and since then, it seems NFL teams have shied away from completely implementing college style offenses.  Except for recent pockets of success (Tebow and the Broncos last season, and some instances of the spread option this season (notably the Seahawks and 49ers)) college offenses haven't fared well in the NFL.      

If Kelly does decide to leave Oregon for the NFL, the next question is where will he end up? I think that he would still focus his offense around a mobile QB, so the expected opening at San Diego (with the highly immobile Phillip Rivers) isn't a fit.  Being a Broncos fan, I'm ok with this.  I believe Jim Schwartz's reign in Detroit is also up (though he did receive an extension after the Lions made the playoffs last season) but the Lions have a tried and true pocket passer in Matthew Stafford as their signal caller.  Again, on the surface, not an ideal fit.  My extremely knowledgeable neighbor mentioned the Raiders as a potential landing spot with Terrell Pryor leading the offense (not the lead-footed Carson Palmer).  I think this location does have merit, but to me, if the Carolina Panthers decide to make a coaching change after two subpar seasons, they provide the most intriguing option with the mobile Cam Newton as their QB.  The weather in North Carolina is also favorable.  I mention the weather because, except for the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers, year in and year out, offenses of teams from the north are stereotypically not known to be highly prolific.  (Think more 'ground and pound' as the days get colder up north.) Unfortunately another counter to this argument comes courtesy of Kelly himself, albeit from the college game.  Prior to joining Oregon as their Offensive Coordinator, Kelly was the Offensive Coordinator at the University of New Hampshire (1999-2006).  To the mainstream, or any stream for that matter, UNH is not known to be a football powerhouse, but under Kelly's tutelage, UNH put up ridiculous numbers, averaging better than 400 yards per game of total offense in seven of his eight seasons and more than 30 points per game in his final four seasons.  (Thank you Wikipedia for having the stats that I believe existed.)  I read this as Kelly taking the talent that he's got, scheming, and using it to exploit weaknesses in his opponents.  Who wouldn't want a coach like that guiding their team at any level?

I don't foresee Kelly leaving the friendly confines that Nike built in Eugene for just any job in the NFL, but if he sees the right opportunity I'm sure, like almost any coach, he'll bolt for one of the 32 most coveted head coaching jobs in football. 

The only question I have left is does Chip Kelly want to go to the NFL? Kelly's never coached in the NFL, so does he really want to leave Oregon where he's the only show in town (who can do little wrong) and has seemingly limitless funds from Nike to continually upgrade facilities with?  Money from the Pac-12 Network is only adding to the coffers as well.  As stated before, he turned the Bucs’ job down a year ago, the same Bucs who had a young mobile QB leading a team who had a year earlier won 10 games, missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker.  Allegedly one reason he stayed at Oregon was because he wasn't guaranteed that his choice to be his successor at Oregon would actually get the job.  I think this shows how much he cares about the University of Oregon and the college game.   I may be proven wrong shortly after this post goes viral.....I mean goes live, but I'm not convinced that Kelly wants to go to the NFL.  I think the combination of loving Oregon, unfinished business with the Ducks (no national titles, only one title game appearance (losing on a field goal on the final play of the game to Cam Newton and Auburn), not having averaged 75 points/game....ok....that last one is a bit of a stretch) and the lack of the right opening in the NFL, will compel Kelly to stay for at least another year in Duck land. 

With an offense like his, I think Kelly would relish the chance to play in the BCS playoffs because teams would have a limited amount of time to prepare for the Ducks' offense.  However, if Kelly would win a national title, I don't think the Ducks would stand a chance of having their head Duck stay for an encore.....unless he was still eyeing that 75 points/game mark.

What Will Nick Saban Do?

Sadly, one of the last posts I made was when Alabama played LSU for the national title almost a year ago....not sad that it was about Alabama....sad the fact that it was almost a year ago. 

So Alabama is back in the national title game but this year going up against undefeated Notre Dame. This is Saban's third title game in the last four years, having defeated LSU after the 2011 season and Texas after the 2009 season (he also defeated Oklahoma after the 2003 season, while the coach of LSU).  Even if the Fighting Irish should defeat the Crimson Tide on January 7th (not likely according to The Sports Question Mark's assessment), what more is left for Saban to accomplish?  After a failed two year stint in the NFL with the Dolphins (15-17, narrowly missing the playoffs his first season with a 9-7 record), Saban returned to the college game with Alabama in 2007. His record at Alabama is an astounding 62-13, with five seasons of 10+ wins (that’s five of six); I'll ask again, what more is left for him to accomplish at the collegiate level?  In quotes attributed to Saban's wife, winning isn't bringing the satisfaction it once did because it's becoming expected.  (In all honesty, the vast majority of coaches would prefer to have this situation and his $5M+ annual salary.)

Saban hasn't always been a college coach, most notably having served as Bill Belichick's Defensive Coordinator (1991-1994) during The Hoody's failed (compared to his success in New England) stint in Cleveland.  Interesting that Cleveland should come up.....because the Browns are under new ownership (since the season began Randy Lerner sold the team and is enjoying his football in England as the owner of Aston Villa of the English Premier League) and a new coaching and management regime is expected (owners typically want their own selections in their President, GM and Head Coaching positions, so this isn't a big surprise) in fact, Team President Mike Holmgren has already stepped aside, and rumor on the street is that NFL Network analyst Mike Lombardi has been tagged as the next GM of the Browns.  So how is this tied to Saban?  When Saban was in Cleveland, Lombardi was in the Brown's front office (Pro Personnel Director and Director of Player Personnel), and allegedly shares in the Belichick player evaluation mindset.  Saban did not have people who shared this way of doing business in Miami....and may have never left the pro game had he. 

I'm not just here to be a pretty face and poke holes in other people's theories, so here’s my prediction.  If Alabama loses to Notre Dame there's only a 50-50 chance that Saban leaves for the NFL.  If Bama wins, that number jumps to 75-25 that he leaves.  With three titles in just four years, what more will there be for Saban to prove/accomplish at Alabama?  Also, if the NFL gig doesn't work out again for Saban and he wanted to return to the college game, how many colleges wouldn't have him as their coach?  I believe a bidding war will erupt….and the Naval Academy will welcome him back with open arms.  He was the Defensive Back Coach there in 1982.

Why are we not talking about the Ravens missing their chance to ice the game?

Yes, it's been waaaaaaaaaay too long, but I finally got pissed enough at bad coaching to post something.  I've penned several posts, but they just never made it to the interweb.  Yes, my bad.

Now I humbly submit the ravings of someone who pays too much attention to sports...
With 4:47 to play, Ray Rice scored a TD to put the Baltimore Ravens up 27-20.  At this point they were up by a TD and a PAT.  Had the Ravens gone for 2 and succeeded, they would have been up by two scores (9 points), but instead of doing this they did the "logical" thing and kicked the PAT, leaving them up by a TD and two point conversion.  Yes, now we know that Washington got the necessary TD and two point conversion to send the game to overtime, but even if Baltimore had gone for two and failed, they would have been up by 7 points and if Washington had indeed gone on to score a TD bringing their total to 26, Shannahan probably would have gone for the safe call and kicked the PAT to tie the game instead of going for the two point conversion to win the game (or potentially lose the game) outright in regulation.

Ravens missed an opportunity to win the game outright and send the Skins' fans home early.....who knows....RG3 may not have been injured....yes, butterfly effect.

Funny thing is, Cam Cameron was fired today as Offensive Coordinator for the Ravens.  Had the Ravens gone for two and succeeded, the chances of them winning yesterday would have been close to 100% and Cameron would probably still be employed by Baltimore.

What Does This Mean?

I can’t tell if this is a good thing or a bad thing…and I’m just going to put it out there…I’ve fallen out of love with the NFL. My wife thinks this is a good thing, but something inside of me feels strange that I’m on a break from the most popular game in America.  Yes, this is crazy.

It is the offseason and training camps don’t kick off for a month and the regular season is still almost two and a half months away, but I’ve lost my passion for the NFL.  Case in point, I didn’t know the Broncos (with Peyton Manning as their QB!) had a minicamp until after it was over.  Ask anyone who knows me, this is not normal behavior.

Maybe when the regular season rolls around I’ll feel differently, but I’m not certain that this will be the case.  I’ve been thinking about this for awhile and I can’t just pin it down to one cause…so please let me think this through.

I hate contract negotiations and holdouts, but these issues are neither isolated to the NFL nor just to sports in the U.S.  As I noted last year (sorry about the lack of posts) fans were the ones who got cheated last summer during the ‘tense’ Owners-Players Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) negotiations…where only one preseason game turned out to be missed.

One thing that I can’t stand right now (which has been going on for months) is “Bountygate”.  The mere existence of alleged bounty programs makes me sick.  Paying for good hits, fine…aiming to intentionally knock players out of games, not fine.  If someone gets hurt in the normal course of play, that is one thing, going out to intentionally injure someone, possibly causing debilitating, permanent injuries is not.  In the NFC Title Game three seasons ago, QB Brett Favre of the Minnesota Vikings was allegedly a major target of the New Orleans Saints and pictures of his postgame ankle turned a lot of stomachs.  Yes, Favre didn’t miss a snap, but had Favre not thrown a late game interception when the Vikings were at the edge of K Ryan Longwell’s field goal range, Favre’s availability for the Super Bowl against the Indianapolis Colts would have been in question.

Another issue I’m struggling with is concussions and the lawsuits about them.  A class action lawsuit has been filed linking together numerous lawsuits again the NFL over head injuries.  I’m sorry; every person who’s ever played football (at any level) or watched it in person or on TV has realized that it is a violent game.  Injuries occur when individuals collide…especially when the individuals are huge and moving at high rates of speed.  This isn’t breaking news.  Let’s also not forget that through the years, players in the NFL have been rewarded handsomely as paychecks have done nothing but rise.

What I do find ironic is that at the same time former players are suing the NFL over concussions, current players (like James Harrison of the Pittsburgh Steelers) are complaining and threatening to retire over punishments for making illegal hits…some of which caused concussions!  Hypocrisy at its finest.

Yes, Go Broncos….I’ll still cheer for them, but every game won’t be must see TV.  Kelly McGillis got that lovin’ feelin’ back…it remains to be seen if I will.

Is Denver Not Big Enough for the Two of Them?

Just a few thoughts...

 

I am a Tim Tebow fan.  Won't deny it.  But when Peyton Manning became a free agent, I wanted #18 in Denver.  There is no doubt about it, Tebow reenergized the fan base in Denver.  Yes, he was a draft pick of Josh McDaniels, but Tebow helped pull the Broncos organization out of the muck that McDaniels left behind.  Tebow attracted positive media back to Denver, and let's not forget that he lead the Broncos to seven wins in eight games when he became the starter last season.  Were the games pretty?  Not even close, but did they enable the Broncos to win their division and then beat the Steelers in the playoffs?  Yes to all, with Tebow throwing (YES, THROWING) for 316 yards and two touchdowns in the overtime playoff win.

 

When Peyton Manning made his decision to sign with the Broncos, my initial thought was that Denver should keep both QBs.  I mean, who better for Tebow to learn from?  Unfortunately I put more thought into this.

Denver cannot keep both QBs.  This is not a money issue because Tebow was a late first round draft pick, and his contract is not expensive (5 years, $9.7M with $1.942.5M (fully guaranteed) due in 2012, $2.266.75M (fully guaranteed) due in 2013, and $2.590.5 million ($567,500 guaranteed) due in 2014.  (http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_15667056#ixzz1pgIhipCX)).  Here are the potential pitfalls I see if both players remain Broncos.  First, if (God forbid) the Broncos lose two or three games in a row, how will it look if a portion of Bronco Nation is chanting for Tebow to relieve Manning?  Second, does it make any sense to have a goal line / short yardage situation where John Fox motions to #18 that he's needed on the sideline?  Can you imagine the look on Manning's face as he trots off the field being replaced by an backup?  I want the center (Jeff Saturday?) making every meaningful snap this season to one guy, Peyton Manning.

For the reasons just listed, I don't think New England is a good place for Tebow to land.  Of course the Broncos will trade him to whichever team makes the best offer, but would the Patriots (even with the drafter of Tebow, Josh McDaniels as their Offensive Coordinator) remove Brady from a game so that Tebow can run the spread option and conduct a QB keeper or a jump pass?

 

Jacksonville is my guess for Tebow's destination.  They need to fill their tarp covered stands and Tebow will do just that.  People forget that the NFL is a business....and Tebow is good for business.

Will the BCS Be Changed Tonight?

It's already determined...the BCS National Champion is going to come from the SEC for the sixth straight year.

So who are you rooting for?  As much as I'd like to see LSU be the only team in college football to go undefeated, I'm hoping that Alabama wins so that the BCS can be restructured.  Yes, the #1 and #2 teams in the final BCS poll are meeting tonight, but my question is, who's the real champion if Alabama wins?  Yes, they will have won the BCS title game, but each team will then finish the season with only one loss....to each other.  Why shouldn't LSU's win AT Alabama, on the first Saturday in November, count as much as tonight's game where the Crimson Tide have had over a month to prepare for the Tigers?

The fact of the matter is that a playoff is needed.  In my opinion, eight teams to decide the title.  College football (Div I) is the only collegiate sport that does not have a playoff...a win by Alabama will help expedite this change...a win by LSU might not.  I have a plan that I'm working on that I'll share soon with all of you SQM devotees...I'm talking to all six of you.

Roll Tide!