I'll start this post with a
disclosure....my wife graduated from a PAC-12 school and although this may be
considered blasphemous in her family, I am a diehard fan of Chip Kelly at
Oregon. His explosive teams (in this
case 'explosive' may actually be an understatement) are fun to watch and he is
a student of sports' analytics, specifically in game situations as to when to
attempt fourth down conversions when the traditional coaching mindset says to
punt or try a field goal. He calls plays
that give his teams the best chance to win games rather than to "play it
safe" and avoid losing. He's
figured out the difference and this has been refreshing to see at the college
level and of which, more is needed in the NFL.
A year ago, Kelly was offered the head
coaching position with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but turned it down (thus
leading the Bucs to make a somewhat surprise hire in Greg Schiano from Rutgers). Kelly's Ducks went on to go 11-1 this season
with a Freshman QB and a new starting RB, losing only to what my neighbor
claimed (and I agree) was "a perfect game" played by Stanford. Did you know that the Ducks averaged 50.8
points per game and 550.1 yards per contest? Would he be able to put numbers like this up
at the pro level? To answer "highly
unlikely" is probably giving it too much of a chance, but the intrigue is
still there. Members of the New England
Patriots have publicly said that the up-tempo offense they've run this season
is modeled after Kelly's, and showing it's crossover appeal, before their title
winning season a year ago, Miami Heat Head Coach Eric Spoelstra, spent time
studying the Ducks' offense and applying its principles to the NBA game. Seemed to work out pretty well for the Heat,
and the Patriots have already locked up the AFC East title and a playoff spot
this season.
Compared to other teams, Kelly's offense
has exploited defensive weaknesses better than almost everyone, finishing the
season ranked 2nd nationally in points/game (again 50.8!!!) and 4th in yards/game. In a stat I created seven years ago (albeit
for the NFL, but it applies to all levels of football), Oregon ranks 2nd (out
of 124 teams) in what I have coined "Offensive Efficiency" (OEFF). (Basically, OEFF is how many yards a
team has to go to score one point; the lower the number for an offense the
better because everyone wants their team to have their offensive drives turn
into points, preferably touchdowns. Bottom
line, Offensive Efficiency is how good a team is in turning yards into points.)
In the year preceding Kelly’s arrival
(2006), Oregon ranked 54th in OEFF, but as the Duck’s Offensive
Coordinator, their OEFF immediately jumped to 21st in the nation in 2007 and
again up to 12th in 2008. Since Kelly
became the Head Coach (but still running the offense) in 2009, his teams have
ranked 5th, 4th, 8th and 2nd in
OEFF. In contrast, over the same years,
Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide teams ranked 23rd, 26th, 18th and 7th. Yes, Alabama is known for its defense and not
offense but it shows the disparity among elite teams for making the most of
their offensive drives. OEFF penalizes
teams who accumulate large yardage stats but end up with field goals or
turnovers at the end of their drives. (Unfortunately,
defensive stats are not found ANYWHERE except in individual game box scores and
since I'm not yet paid to do this for a living, copying the stats from 60 games
every weekend and crunching the numbers takes a little too much time. It's odd that for college football, offensive
numbers are readily available but defensive yards and points allowed are not. College football stats are unlike the NFL's
which has all of its major stats available every week on several websites. That said, if anyone is hiring to do stats
research, I'm in.)
As stated, I don't believe Kelly's
offense, as it's currently constructed (QB taking too many hits), would work
against bigger, stronger, faster NFL defenses, but the way that Kelly exploits
weaknesses of other teams, I believe will definitely translate to the pro game. Unfortunately for Kelly, Steve Spurrier's
highly effective Fun ‘n’ Gun offense at the University of Florida didn't
translate to success at the pro level (most say due to the bigger, stronger,
faster NFL defenses but having non-NFL caliber QBs was a bigger issue in my
opinion) and since then, it seems NFL teams have shied away from completely
implementing college style offenses. Except
for recent pockets of success (Tebow and the Broncos last season, and some
instances of the spread option this season (notably the Seahawks and 49ers))
college offenses haven't fared well in the NFL.
If Kelly does decide to leave Oregon for
the NFL, the next question is where will he end up? I think that he would still
focus his offense around a mobile QB, so the expected opening at San Diego
(with the highly immobile Phillip Rivers) isn't a fit. Being a Broncos fan, I'm ok with this. I believe Jim Schwartz's reign in Detroit is
also up (though he did receive an extension after the Lions made the playoffs
last season) but the Lions have a tried and true pocket passer in Matthew Stafford
as their signal caller. Again, on the
surface, not an ideal fit. My extremely
knowledgeable neighbor mentioned the Raiders as a potential landing spot with
Terrell Pryor leading the offense (not the lead-footed Carson Palmer). I think this location does have merit, but to
me, if the Carolina Panthers decide to make a coaching change after two subpar
seasons, they provide the most intriguing option with the mobile Cam Newton as
their QB. The weather in North Carolina
is also favorable. I mention the weather
because, except for the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers, year in and
year out, offenses of teams from the north are stereotypically not known to be
highly prolific. (Think more 'ground and
pound' as the days get colder up north.) Unfortunately another counter to this argument
comes courtesy of Kelly himself, albeit from the college game. Prior to joining Oregon as their Offensive
Coordinator, Kelly was the Offensive Coordinator at the University of New
Hampshire (1999-2006). To the
mainstream, or any stream for that matter, UNH is not known to be a football
powerhouse, but under Kelly's tutelage, UNH put up ridiculous numbers, averaging
better than 400 yards per game of total offense in seven of his eight seasons
and more than 30 points per game in his final four seasons. (Thank you Wikipedia for having the stats
that I believe existed.) I read this as
Kelly taking the talent that he's got, scheming, and using it to exploit
weaknesses in his opponents. Who
wouldn't want a coach like that guiding their team at any level?
I don't foresee Kelly leaving the
friendly confines that Nike built in Eugene for just any job in the NFL, but if
he sees the right opportunity I'm sure, like almost any coach, he'll bolt for
one of the 32 most coveted head coaching jobs in football.
The only question I have left is does
Chip Kelly want to go to the NFL? Kelly's never coached in the NFL, so does he
really want to leave Oregon where he's the only show in town (who can do little
wrong) and has seemingly limitless funds from Nike to continually upgrade
facilities with? Money from the Pac-12 Network
is only adding to the coffers as well. As
stated before, he turned the Bucs’ job down a year ago, the same Bucs who had a
young mobile QB leading a team who had a year earlier won 10 games, missing the
playoffs on a tiebreaker. Allegedly one
reason he stayed at Oregon was because he wasn't guaranteed that his choice to
be his successor at Oregon would actually get the job. I think this shows how much he cares about
the University of Oregon and the college game.
I may be proven wrong shortly after this post goes viral.....I
mean goes live, but I'm not convinced that Kelly wants to go to the NFL. I think the combination of loving Oregon,
unfinished business with the Ducks (no national titles, only one title game
appearance (losing on a field goal on the final play of the game to Cam Newton
and Auburn), not having averaged 75 points/game....ok....that last one is a bit
of a stretch) and the lack of the right opening in the NFL, will compel Kelly
to stay for at least another year in Duck land.
With an offense like his, I think Kelly
would relish the chance to play in the BCS playoffs because teams would have a
limited amount of time to prepare for the Ducks' offense. However, if Kelly would win a national title,
I don't think the Ducks would stand a chance of having their head Duck stay for
an encore.....unless he was still eyeing that 75 points/game mark.
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