So who will be this year’s Giants?

Last year the San Francisco Giants played their cards right and won the World Championship.  Technically, they won the Championship of one Canadian city and the United States of America, but that’s an argument for another day.  A good question is who picked the Giants to win before the season?  Last year they had numerous players playing above their previous levels, which few saw coming.  So who will be this year’s Giants?  In what will be the first of many, I present this 2011’s baseball breakdown.

AL East – I believe one team got significantly better this offseason through transactions and getting players healthy.  In signing Carl Crawford, the Boston Red Sox acquired the best non-pitcher free agent and weakened the Tampa Bay Rays.  Now the Rays didn’t have the financial means to resign Crawford, but with him signing within the division the defending AL East Champions had their title defense get that much tougher.  The Yankees went all in to sign Cliff Lee, only to have him sign with the Phillies.  Their most significant signing in the offseason was a new eighth inning setup man (also from the Rays).  They are a team loaded with all stars, but they’ve all gotten a year older.  The Blue Jays and Orioles must curse Bud Selig every day for keeping them in a division with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.  Red Sox

AL Central – A ton of balls are going to fly out of Comiskey Park this season for the Chicago White Sox thanks to acquiring Adam Dunn and resigning Paul Konerko.  (I don’t care what it’s called, it’s still Comiskey to me.)  The Twins always win when they’re not supposed to so they can’t be counted out, but the long-term health of 1B Justin Morneau is a big question mark as he tries to make it back from last season’s concussion.  As Miguel Cabrera goes with his addiction battles, so go the Tigers.  The Indians will be good again someday, and the Royals will be good again some decade.  White Sox

AL West – The Rangers return virtually intact from last year’s AL Pennant winning team, except for the aforementioned Cliff Lee, but what many people have forgotten is that Lee didn’t join Texas until midseason after they’d already established a lead in their division.  The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim came in second or third in the free agent sweepstakes of several players, thus not adding much to their underperforming 80-82 2010 season.  The Mariners have a beautiful stadium, King Felix Hernandez and Ichiro…sorry, not much else.  The A’s are the anomaly in this division.  While few can name any of their position players, the A’s Big Four pitchers (Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Gio Gonzalez) are set for a great 2010 campaign.  I don’t know why I like the A’s this year, so I’m blaming it on my love of the book Moneyball by Michael Lewis which chronicled the Oakland A’s, their GM Billy Beane and their groundbreaking use of statistics within their organization.  A’s

NL East – Everybody loves the Phillies with their vaunted rotation of Roy Halladay (on my fantasy baseball team), Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, which on paper is one of the best (if not the best) rotations in all of baseball.  What I don’t love is the injuries to 2B Chase Utley and Closer Brad Lidge; the decline last year of 1B Ryan Howard; and trying to fill the hole that OF Jayson Werth left (when he took the crazy money that Washington offered).  The Braves also sport a very good pitching staff and several very good players, and are the trendy sleeper pick to steal the NL East.  The Marlins aren’t due for another good season until ownership decides again to rent talent instead of just trading away their good prospects like they’re doing now.  Washington spent a boatload on Werth and made a run at Lee in the offseason, but they’re still several years off.  Hopefully the Mets can perform better on the field than the Wilpons’ are doing financially off it, as they wade through the Bernie Madoff mess.  Phillies

NL Central – All the attention will continue to be on Albert Pujols as he plays out the final year of his contract, and I think the distraction will be too much for the Cardinals to overcome when you add that to the loss of ace P Adam Wainwright, who is already out for the season.  I don’t care how loaded the Cubs’ lineup is, I won’t ever pick them to win…by the way they’re not loaded this year.  Milwaukee has gone all in this season acquiring P’s Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum to capitalize on the last year 1B Prince Fielder is a Brewer.  (An interesting note about Marcum’s last season as a Blue Jay is in 21 starts against teams not named the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays he posted a 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, compared to 3.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against those three teams…he’s not in the AL East now.)  The Reds have been hit with injuries to a couple of their pitchers, so a fast start shouldn’t be expected this year too.  They too had several players overachieve from their previous statistics, and although certain talking heads are picking them again, I’m not buying it.  It’s scary to say, but Houston may challenge the perennially bad Pirates for last place in the division this year.  Brewers

NL West – As I mentioned in the opening, the Giants overachieved big time last year.  To quote ESPN’s Jayson Stark “…Andres Torres arising from the scrap heap to get 67 extra-base hits last season … and a guy who got released by Tampa Bay (Pat Burrell) batting cleanup in Game 1 of the World Series … and a fellow who got claimed on waivers (Cody Ross) hitting two home runs off Roy Halladay in a postseason game … and the World Series MVP award going to a man (Edgar Renteria) who bopped two three-run homers in the Series after hitting none in the entire season.”  (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview/2011/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=6267195)  I don’t recall the Giants being a trendy sleeper pick in the preseason a year ago, and I’m not going with them this year.  Odds are too great that their players will regress towards what they were in past years…which means not World Series Champions.  Like the Mets, the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles are in disarray as their owners are engaged in a bitter divorce.  Who knows how much money they’ll invest in the team this year and whether or not it will be sold.  Too many distractions for my taste.  San Diego also played way over their heads last year, and 1B Adrian Gonzalez is now in Boston and ace P Mat Latos is starting the year on the DL.  Last year’s 90 victories came out of nowhere, but now one of their biggest offensive weapons is OF Brad Hawpe, who’s not going to scare anyone.  Let the Rocky Mountain Bias begin!  The Rockies have three superstars in SS Troy Tulowitski, OF Carlos Gonzalez and P Ubaldo Jimenez, and just need to get more production out of their teammates.  This year they will (…as it’s an odd numbered year…check their stats).  Rockies

Wild Cards – AL:  Yankees; NL:  Braves.

Wild Card Round:

Red Sox over White Sox

Yankees over A’s

Rockies over Braves

Phillies over Brewers

Championship Series:

Red Sox over Yankees

Phillies over Rockies (this pains me greatly)

World Series:

Red Sox over Phillies